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James Picerno

www.CapitalSpectator.com
  • Analysis & Opinion

James Picerno's Opinion & Analysis
A complete archive of James Picerno's articles, including current analysis & opinion.

How much policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk can the US economy absorb without derailing its expansion? More than many analysts expected.As a thought experiment, let’s return to Jan. 1,...
Bonds are prized for offering stability in an asset‑allocation strategy, providing an offset to the higher risk in stocks, particularly during periods of market stress. But since the Iran war...
The inflation-driven spike in the market premium for the US 10-year yield in 2022-2023 has been gradually reversing over the last several years. But in the wake of the turmoil in the Middle East,...
The tentative ceasefire between the US and Iran is holding as both governments prepare to meet for high‑stakes talks in Pakistan. The foundation for a peace deal may be wobbly, but the stock...
US economic activity is still expected to rebound in the upcoming first-quarter GDP report scheduled for Apr. 30, but recovery from Q4’s stall-speed increase may face stronger headwinds in Q2 as...
The two-week ceasefire announced by the US and Iran on Tuesday is welcome news, but deciding if the threat of war has truly passed will take time. The peace may be fragile, but markets are already...
The Federal Reserve is steering through one of the most challenging policy environments in years as the war with Iran destabilizes global energy markets and raises uncertainty about inflation and...
Global markets are entering a sixth week of stress testing as the war with Iran continues with no immediate resolution in sight. The main risk factor remains the closure, or near‑closure, of the...
The war with Iran started over a month ago and could run for several more weeks, according to President Trump’s address to the nation last night. The short-term effects for markets have already...
Markets took a beating in March, thanks to the war with Iran. Commodities surged and cash edged higher, but the rest of the major asset classes fell, in some cases sharply, based on a set of proxy...